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| Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome represent the Erie Otters in the OHL's top 20 recent prospects. (OHL Images) |
Corey Pronman of ESPN recently wrote on the Top 30 draft prospects of the last 3 years. In that post, Pronman constructed a clear image of where in his mind he sees recent prospects relative to each other. This list works around a similar idea.
Below is a ranking of who I believe were the Ontario Hockey League's top prospects of the last five years, dating back to the 2010-2011 season. Prospects soon to be drafted in 2015 are included among the list, offering a glimpse at where this year's class stands among recent ones.
The purpose of this list is to allow for a look into how prospects have done since the 2011 draft and use those progressions as a potential sidebar analysis into how this year's eligibles may fare.
This list is not based on personal rankings. It is based on who media and scouts as a mass have deemed to be top prospects in those prospects' respective draft years. Those prospects were then sorted into a subjective list by myself, resulting in the list below. For example, I believe Gabriel Landeskog would have been chosen ahead of Sam Bennett. And now we go.
1. Connor McDavid (F) (Erie Otters) (2015)
Lessons Learned: Clearly, the book on McDavid is just getting started. Having said that, we can see that with defencemen consistently leaning to their left, left-shooting forwards often have the ability to translate their speed into carried possession into the offensive zone. Defencemen's sticks only adjust so fast when they're controlling a gap skating backwards - McDavid has the natural instincts to adjust accordingly on the fly.
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| Nail Yakupov (OHL Images) |
Lessons Learned: The word polarizing is being thrown around so much these days with prospects that it doesn't have a concrete meaning anymore. But Yakupov still has a dynamic element that we only see occasional glimpses of. Now on a bridge contract with the Oilers, Yakupov is in a prove-it-or-lose-it situation.
With such a low base for his skating power, Yakupov should be able to gain an inside step on defencemen, but we so often see him move into outside lanes. I firmly believe there is still a place for the dump-and-chase style of attack, but with the style Yakupov plays, he needs to be a player who never dumps it. He can be the chaser; watching Yakupov chip the puck down into the zone creates a let-down nearly every time.
A player with Yakupov's naturally edgy skating style needs to enter the offensive zone with the puck, but one of the worst things he can do is cross the blueline and then stop to look for a pass. Yakupov has the ability to fly into the zone with speed and keep going. There's a need for him to be selfish here. If he doesn't have the puck before the red line, he's not the player to be carrying it across the blueline. Yakupov can become a moving pass target who receives the feed and wires a quick shot off. Let someone else do the dipsy-doodling inside the line.
3. Aaron Ekblad (D) (Barrie Colts) (2014)
Lessons Learned: One, the footspeed issues Ekblad was said to have can be outdone but a natural yet visible on-ice awareness. It's not very often we'll see Ekblad not know there's a forechecker on his tail, and that in itself bodes well for him going forward.
Second, Jakob Chychrun looks like an even better prospect than he has already appeared to be. Though not eligible until 2016, the Sarnia Sting defenceman gives all sorts of similar vibes. There are no defencemen in this year's pool who are comparable to Ekblad. As it turns out, the physical side of a defenceman's game is still an extremely valuable asset - it's what I feel is limiting Noah Hanifin of Boston College this season. In Chychrun, there's a natural big body who knows how to use his frame to both initiate contact as well as prevent. That itself is invaluable.
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| Gabriel Landeskog (OHL Images) |
Lessons Learned: The obvious leadership traits Landeskog possesses clearly helped his transition to the Colorado Avalanche. Regardless of skill level, those traits give a prospect an edge over level competition. We haven't again seen the power forward leadership Landeskog displayed as a draft-eligible. Ekblad had similar traits as a defenseman, but did have the advantage of an extra OHL season under his belt before being drafted. Leadership breeds success both on the ice and off.
5. Alex Galchenyuk (F) (Sarnia Sting) (2012)
Lessons Learned: When it comes to this year's NHL draft class, Galchenyuk's situation very much relates to what Mathew Barzal has and will continue to experience as he develops. Knees are tricky when it comes to high-end offensive producers, and Barzal has been stalled by similar issues Galchenyuk had during his time in the OHL with Sarnia. In one way, Galchenyuk's path shows that Barzal may have the opportunity to move past his injuries into a likely top-nine forward. On the other hand, Galchenyuk is showing a few signs of struggling to adapt to the physical demands of regular NHL responsibilities down the middle, and that will be something to watch with Barzal moving forward.
6. Sam Bennett (F) (Kingston Frontenacs) (2014)
Lessons Learned: As much as Bennett has only played a few games with the Calgary Flames, there are a few items that can be learned from so far. First, the physical capabilities of Bennett were heavily scrutinized following his NHL combine performance. That's a mark that should be learned from. The strength tests in themselves are useful and should absolutely stay; what shouldn't stay are the assumptions made about a prospect's physical development potential. Mitchell Marner didn't put up fantastic strength numbers at this year's combine. All that shows is that there is so much more room to grow.
Second, comparisons to Doug Gilmour can end with Bennett. That Kingston connection is now past its prime, so let's not have every hungry prospect receive the same comparison.
7. Sean Monahan (F) (Ottawa 67's) (2013)
Lessons Learned: The obvious lesson here revolves around the idea of over-scouting. Monahan played three full seasons in Ottawa before being eligible to hear his name called to the big stage. Similar things have happened since with Nick Ritchie being a late-birthday, and Sean Day is going to get this treatment next year. The only difference between a player already drafted and a player with a late birthday drafted the next year is that the late-birthday should have similar but acceptably-less numbers than the post-draft player. They're on a marginally different development path, and the drafted prospect should have better numbers after he receives the resources that come with being drafted by an NHL team. The criticism is already happening with Day, and it's only going to get worse. Let's try and limit that next season.
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| Darnell Nurse (OHL Images) |
Lessons Learned: It's not a current OHLer who could stand to learn a lot from Nurse, because that prospect is Erik Cernak of Slovakia. With a similar - albeit slightly heavier - frame, Cernak needs to watch Nurse to see the patience large defenseman need to display in pressure situations. Cernak was just awful handling the puck in this year's World Junior championship. Mobility among defensive prospects has become a key desire of scouts and evaluators.
When Nurse enters the NHL with Edmonton, I feel he will struggle with the speed of smaller players in his first year. But as he becomes more confident, he'll need to start using his own mobility to suppress that of his opponents, much in the way Victor Hedman of Tampa Bay does now.
9. Dougie Hamilton (D) (Niagara IceDogs) (2011)
Lessons Learned: Skating counts, beef still matters. Hamilton is still working on getting stronger as he becomes a trusted defenceman with the Boston Bruins. But his progression will continue to be limited by struggles to add mass to his frame. Thomas Chabot of the Saint John Sea Dogs is the defender from this year's draft class who resembles what Hamilton once was in junior. While Hamilton was more of a physical rock in major junior than Chabot is at the moment, Chabot can take a lesson from Hamilton in how to train to endure the demands of pro hockey.
10. Michael Dal Colle (F) (Oshawa Generals) (2014)
Lessons Learned: Despite there being a difference in shooting lethality, Dal Colle actually is in a similar position to that of Dylan Strome. With Dal Colle, there were a few consistency issues this season, ones where he would be a threat for four or five periods in a row and then disappear for four or five more. Strome has done the same this season, and that's something to watch with him next year. Dal Colle looks the most dangerous when he's three feet inside the offensive blueline. That's a really positive thing, but for him to ensure shooting opportunities in the NHL he's going to need to move a few more feet in while still holding the puck. Dal Colle's shot does remind of Steven Stamkos's, just with a left-right difference. Stamkos is most dangerous in and around the faceoff circles. Dal Colle has started to play that similar setup and will need to continue to develop that element moving forward.
11. Mitchell Marner (F) (London Knights) (2015)
Lessons Learned: Every time I watch Mitchell Marner I get Phil Kessel vibes. That's a compliment, over-critical Maple Leafs fans. Kessel doesn't have the height that some scorers have, and Marner doesn't yet have the mass that NHL scorers do. But what Marner does have is Kessel's agility above the hash-marks and Patrick Kane's creativity below them. For scouts and evaluators watching Marner, it's easy to look at him and see the Patrick Kane of eight or ten years ago; same major junior team, same style. That led to a pretty good result. Marner should be the third overall pick, and there needs to be a recognition of what Kane has been able to achieve with a very similar skill set.
12. Dylan Strome (F) (Erie Otters) (2015)
Lessons Learned: As a big body who doesn't necessarily use it the way others would, Strome is a different kind of big, skilled centre. The common Joe Thornton comparison is fine, though it does give him a label of being a little soft before he even enters pro hockey. No shots fired at Jumbo Joe, but it does suggest Strome could bring more energy in the physical game. Perhaps it means Strome's offensive output will be limited down the middle of the ice, or perhaps it suggests that his on-ice intelligence will lead to a long NHL career.
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| Nick Ritchie (OHL Images) |
Lessons Learned: Nick Ritchie is an odd case in that he is an Anaheim Ducks prospect who reminds of a current Duck in Patrick Maroon. Of course, the immediate question here is whether or not a Maroon-type player is one teams should be looking at in the first round. The answer in this case is yes, and it's in part to a player now mentioned as a prospect similar to Ritchie in current draft-eligible Lawson Crouse. With Ritchie, there was an issue of over-scouting thanks to his late birthday, as was mentioned earlier. But what can be learned of Crouse from Ritchie? Contrary to Maroon's case, the answer is not as much as we may like.
For myself, Crouse compares to Conner Bleackley of the Western Hockey League's Red Deer Rebels. With Bleackley, I do feel he was selected in a high draft spot of twenty-third overall last season. Crouse being of a similar style leads me to have problems justifying him as an early first-rounder. So goes the Maroon-Ritchie-Bleackley-Crouse cycle. For Crouse, the lesson here may not work in his favor.
14. Bo Horvat (F) (London Knights) (2013)
Lessons Learned: Horvat is a a difficult lesson in that he was a top-ten pick with projected third-line potential. There wasn't seen as a whole lot that could go wrong with his development into a mainstay NHL centre. This season, Jansen Harkins gets that treatment. If there's one lesson here, it's that finding a mature centre with an understanding of the importance of defensive responsibility will reap rewards. Take that player - though not in the top ten this year - and guide him down a consistent path with no wavering in the message. Trust that a prospect similar to Horvat will take it upon himself to get where he wants to be.
Lessons Learned: There are a lot of things that could go wrong with Domi's transition to pro hockey, meaning the script to his lesson is hardly even started. But with a support system among the strongest outside the NHL, these kinds of prospects are worthier plays than the more skilled player with a less-experienced background. With Domi, there are going to be people who make it their own personal mission to ensure that he gets every opportunity to succeed, simply because Domi has had pedigree and celebrity status within the sport for a few years now.
Learn the physical lessons Jeff Skinner has worked through as a young skill player, and Domi will gain an edge on how players with his puck confidence make the transition work.
16. Ryan Strome (F) (Niagara IceDogs) (2011)
Lessons Learned: Much like Ho-Sang, Strome was an average-sized prospect with Niagara who had superb puck skills. Playing a speed game allowed Strome to remain high on draft lists his entire draft-eligible season. Though he was one of the the top point-getters in the OHL that season, and should have had the most points in more than a few opinions, Strome continued to struggle with consistency. He still does. Sometimes he'll look dynamic, and then he'll suddenly disappear. As mentioned prior, Strome's younger brother Dylan poses a similar issue.
Zach Senyshyn has played with similar consistency levels this season. Though Senyshyn's case is slightly different with him being a role player on a championship-contending team, the Soo Greyhounds forward will need to avoid those consistency issues in his post-draft year. Senyshyn also gets the benefit of the doubt because this was his first full major junior season. Seeing as Strome's issues didn't hold him back from the scoresheet as an eligible, that's something to keep in mind heading into the draft.
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| Brendan Perlini (OHL Images) |
Lessons Learned: Brendan Perlini was a late-season riser heading into the 2014 draft. Known for his big shot and aggressive nature on the rush, Perlini shot up draft boards in the last few months of the 2013-2014 season. After struggling with injuries this past season, Perlini faced the all-too-common post-draft development stall. Not being on the ice a whole lot this year prevented Perlini from showing critics that his lack of physical play would not hinder him from becoming a top prospect in Arizona's pipeline.
This was a pick made almost solely on potential. Pavel Zacha and Perlini align in both offensive nature and injury issues. Zacha gets an edge on merit outside of the OHL.
18. Ryan Murphy (D) (Kitchener Rangers) (2011)
Lessons Learned: Mitchell Vande Sompel has just about heard it all by now, and Ryan Murphy heard the same criticisms heading into his 2011 draft year. At this point it's fairly certain Vande Sompel will be selected outside of the first round, meaning he won't have to deal with the pressures Murphy was bestowed as an elite, young offensive defenseman. The difference between Murphy and Vande Sompel is confidence as a quarterback. Though Vande Sompel showed increased poise as the Oshawa Generals' season wore on, Vande Sompel's is incomparable when matched up with the electricity Murphy showed as a prospect in Kitchener.
The late second round is an appropriate spot for Vande Sompel to be chosen. As for the whole Is he a forward or defenseman in the NHL debate, I've seen Vande Sompel play both dating back to minor midget, and he's a defenceman if he plays an important role in the NHL.
19. Cody Ceci (D) (Ottawa 67's) (2012)
Lessons Learned: Ceci has had an NHL body since his second year in the OHL. Confidence on the ice has also never seemingly been a problem. Maturity gets another check mark. Decision making with puck just hasn't always been as smart as some have hoped. In this year's draft, I see Rasmus Andersson as this year's Ceci. Those two players may even be the most comparable in this year's OHL class. Booming shots and the nerve to handle the puck in between their own defensive circles makes them ideal suitors to prospect expectations. This poses great for Andersson moving forward.
20. Josh Ho-Sang (F) (Windsor Spitfires) (2014)
Lessons Learned: This past season created enough Josh Ho-Sang headlines to write a small novel, but after Ho-Sang's exit from Windsor, it became pretty obvious that there are a lot of things to like about him as a prospect. Though he has been long known for his creativity on the ice, everything looked so much smoother when he transitioned into the Niagara IceDogs' lineup.
If there's been a strong takeaway from the NHL and AHL this season, it's that puckhandling skills and creative thinking are becoming the new way of creating opportunity. Ho-Sang's confidence with the puck on his stick makes it pretty easy to see him having a positive on-ice impact with the New York Islanders within two years.
